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How did the Academy do?

Each Best Picture winner since 1930, next to the highest-rated film of the same year by our composite score. When they match, the Academy called it.

Accuracy
24%
21 / 87 hits
Average gap
6.0
composite points
Biggest miss
1931
Cimarron · Δ 25
Closest call
1950
All About Eve · Δ 0.0
2025
Called it
One Battle After Another
84
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

2024
Academy pick
Anora
80
4 point gap
Highest rated
The Wild Robot
84
Also in contention
  • 84Dune: Part Two
  • 82Flow
2023
Academy pick
Oppenheimer
85
1 point gap
Highest rated
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
86
2022
Academy pick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
81
2 point gap
Highest rated
Aftersun
83
Also in contention
  • 82RRR
  • 82The Banshees of Inisherin
2021
Academy pick
CODA
79
3 point gap
Highest rated
The Worst Person in the World
82
Also in contention
  • 82Jai Bhim
  • 80Judas and the Black Messiah
2020
Academy pick
Nomadland
73
12 point gap
Highest rated
The Father
85
Also in contention
  • 84Hamilton
  • 81Minari
2019
Called it
Parasite
90
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

2018
Academy pick
Green Book
77
10 point gap
Highest rated
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
87
Also in contention
  • 83Roma
  • 82Mission: Impossible - Fallout
2017
Academy pick
The Shape of Water
79
5 point gap
Highest rated
Coco
84
Also in contention
  • 83Call Me by Your Name
  • 83Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2016
Called it
Moonlight
85
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

2015
Academy pick
Spotlight
85
1 point gap
Highest rated
Mad Max: Fury Road
86
2014
Academy pick
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
81
6 point gap
Highest rated
Whiplash
87
Also in contention
  • 84The Grand Budapest Hotel
  • 84Boyhood
2013
Called it
12 Years a Slave
86
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

2012
Academy pick
Argo
80
4 point gap
Highest rated
Django Unchained
84
Also in contention
  • 83The Hunt
  • 83Amour
2011
Academy pick
The Artist
81
6 point gap
Highest rated
A Separation
87
Also in contention
  • 83Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
  • 81Moneyball
2010
Academy pick
The King's Speech
82
4 point gap
Highest rated
Toy Story 3
86
Also in contention
  • 84Inception
  • 84The Social Network
2008
Academy pick
Slumdog Millionaire
82
8 point gap
Highest rated
The Dark Knight
90
Also in contention
  • 87WALL·E
  • 82The Wrestler
2007
Academy pick
No Country for Old Men
86
1 point gap
Highest rated
Ratatouille
87
Also in contention
  • 87There Will Be Blood
2006
Academy pick
The Departed
86
1 point gap
Highest rated
Pan's Labyrinth
87
2004
Academy pick
Million Dollar Baby
83
2 point gap
Highest rated
Before Sunset
85
Also in contention
  • 85Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
  • 83Howl's Moving Castle
2003
Called it
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
91
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

2002
Academy pick
Chicago
78
10 point gap
Highest rated
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
88
Also in contention
  • 87The Pianist
  • 86City of God
2001
Academy pick
A Beautiful Mind
77
12 point gap
Highest rated
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
89
Also in contention
  • 89Spirited Away
  • 83Monsters, Inc.
2000
Academy pick
Gladiator
80
5 point gap
Highest rated
Memento
85
Also in contention
  • 84In the Mood for Love
  • 84Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
1999
Academy pick
American Beauty
82
2 point gap
Highest rated
The Iron Giant
84
Also in contention
  • 83The Matrix
  • 83Toy Story 2
1998
Academy pick
Shakespeare in Love
76
12 point gap
Highest rated
Saving Private Ryan
88
Also in contention
  • 86The Truman Show
  • 81The Celebration
1997
Academy pick
Titanic
79
7 point gap
Highest rated
L.A. Confidential
86
Also in contention
  • 84Good Will Hunting
  • 84Princess Mononoke
1996
Academy pick
The English Patient
77
7 point gap
Highest rated
Fargo
84
Also in contention
  • 83Trainspotting
  • 80Sling Blade
1995
Academy pick
Braveheart
77
10 point gap
Highest rated
Toy Story
87
Also in contention
  • 85La haine
  • 84Before Sunrise
1994
Academy pick
Forrest Gump
84
6 point gap
Highest rated
The Shawshank Redemption
90
Also in contention
  • 89Pulp Fiction
  • 86Three Colors: Red
1993
Called it
Schindler's List
92
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1992
Called it
Unforgiven
84
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1991
Called it
The Silence of the Lambs
87
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1990
Academy pick
Dances with Wolves
78
11 point gap
Highest rated
GoodFellas
89
Also in contention
  • 79Edward Scissorhands
  • 79Misery
1989
Academy pick
Driving Miss Daisy
74
10 point gap
Highest rated
Do the Right Thing
84
Also in contention
  • 82Dead Poets Society
  • 80The Little Mermaid
1988
Academy pick
Rain Man
77
12 point gap
Highest rated
Grave of the Fireflies
89
Also in contention
  • 84Cinema Paradiso
  • 84My Neighbor Totoro
1987
Academy pick
The Last Emperor
77
5 point gap
Highest rated
Full Metal Jacket
82
Also in contention
  • 82The Princess Bride
  • 78The Untouchables
1986
Academy pick
Platoon
83
1 point gap
Highest rated
Aliens
84
1985
Academy pick
Out of Africa
68
19 point gap
Highest rated
Ran
87
Also in contention
  • 86Back to the Future
  • 84Come and See
1984
Called it
Amadeus
85
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1983
Academy pick
Terms of Endearment
75
3 point gap
Highest rated
Scarface
78
Also in contention
  • 77Star Wars: Episode VI - Return of the Jedi
  • 76A Christmas Story
1982
Academy pick
Gandhi
78
5 point gap
Highest rated
Blade Runner
83
Also in contention
  • 83E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
  • 79Tootsie
1981
Academy pick
Chariots of Fire
69
16 point gap
Highest rated
Das Boot
85
Also in contention
  • 85Raiders of the Lost Ark
  • 78The Road Warrior
1980
Academy pick
Ordinary People
79
8 point gap
Highest rated
Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back
87
Also in contention
  • 84Raging Bull
  • 82The Elephant Man
1979
Academy pick
Kramer vs. Kramer
79
8 point gap
Highest rated
Apocalypse Now
87
Also in contention
  • 86Alien
  • 84Stalker
1978
Called it
The Deer Hunter
83
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1977
Academy pick
Annie Hall
83
4 point gap
Highest rated
Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope
87
1976
Academy pick
Rocky
80
5 point gap
Highest rated
Taxi Driver
85
Also in contention
  • 82Network
  • 82All the President's Men
1975
Called it
One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest
87
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1974
Called it
The Godfather Part II
91
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1973
Called it
The Sting
83
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1972
Called it
The Godfather
93
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1971
Called it
The French Connection
82
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1970
Called it
Patton
80
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1969
Called it
Midnight Cowboy
80
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1968
Academy pick
Oliver!
70
15 point gap
Highest rated
Rosemary's Baby
85
Also in contention
  • 85Once Upon a Time in the West
  • 842001: A Space Odyssey
1967
Academy pick
In the Heat of the Night
79
6 point gap
Highest rated
Cool Hand Luke
85
Also in contention
  • 81The Graduate
  • 79Bonnie and Clyde
1966
Academy pick
A Man for All Seasons
75
14 point gap
Highest rated
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
89
Also in contention
  • 83Persona
1965
Academy pick
The Sound of Music
78
3 point gap
Highest rated
For a Few Dollars More
81
1964
Academy pick
My Fair Lady
80
8 point gap
Highest rated
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
88
Also in contention
  • 81Mary Poppins
  • 81Goldfinger
1963
Academy pick
Tom Jones
70
14 point gap
Highest rated
8½
84
Also in contention
  • 83The Great Escape
  • 80The Birds
1962
Called it
Lawrence of Arabia
88
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1961
Academy pick
West Side Story
79
6 point gap
Highest rated
Yojimbo
85
1960
Academy pick
The Apartment
86
3 point gap
Highest rated
Psycho
89
1959
Academy pick
Ben-Hur
82
5 point gap
Highest rated
Some Like It Hot
87
Also in contention
  • 87North by Northwest
  • 83The 400 Blows
1958
Academy pick
Gigi
72
15 point gap
Highest rated
Vertigo
87
Also in contention
  • 85Touch of Evil
1957
Academy pick
The Bridge on the River Kwai
84
9 point gap
Highest rated
12 Angry Men
93
Also in contention
  • 87Paths of Glory
  • 84The Seventh Seal
1956
Academy pick
Around the World in 80 Days
67
15 point gap
Highest rated
The Killing
82
Also in contention
  • 80The Searchers
1955
Academy pick
Marty
78
6 point gap
Highest rated
The Night of the Hunter
84
Also in contention
  • 79Rebel Without a Cause
1954
Academy pick
On the Waterfront
84
6 point gap
Highest rated
Seven Samurai
90
Also in contention
  • 89Rear Window
1953
Academy pick
From Here to Eternity
77
4 point gap
Highest rated
Roman Holiday
81
1952
Academy pick
The Greatest Show on Earth
65
23 point gap
Highest rated
Singin' in the Rain
88
Also in contention
  • 86Ikiru
  • 81High Noon
1951
Academy pick
An American in Paris
77
6 point gap
Highest rated
A Streetcar Named Desire
83
Also in contention
  • 83Strangers on a Train
1950
Academy pick
All About Eve
87
0 point gap
Highest rated
Sunset Boulevard
87
1949
Academy pick
All the King's Men
74
12 point gap
Highest rated
The Third Man
86
1948
Academy pick
Hamlet
76
10 point gap
Highest rated
The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
86
Also in contention
  • 84Bicycle Thieves
  • 79Rope
1946
Academy pick
The Best Years of Our Lives
84
3 point gap
Highest rated
It's a Wonderful Life
87
Also in contention
  • 84Notorious
1944
Academy pick
Going My Way
74
12 point gap
Highest rated
Double Indemnity
86
1943
Called it
Casablanca
89
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1942
Academy pick
Mrs. Miniver
75
14 point gap
Highest rated
Casablanca
89
Also in contention
  • 78Bambi
1941
Academy pick
How Green Was My Valley
80
8 point gap
Highest rated
Citizen Kane
88
Also in contention
  • 84The Maltese Falcon
1940
Academy pick
Rebecca
82
3 point gap
Highest rated
The Grapes of Wrath
85
Also in contention
  • 84The Great Dictator
  • 82Fantasia
1939
Called it
Gone with the Wind
84
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

Also tied at the top
  • 84The Wizard of Oz
Also tied at the top
1937
Academy pick
The Life of Emile Zola
72
5 point gap
Highest rated
Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs
77
1936
Academy pick
The Great Ziegfeld
65
23 point gap
Highest rated
Modern Times
88
1934
Called it
It Happened One Night
83
The Academy called it

The Best Picture winner was also the highest-rated film of the year by composite score.

1931
Academy pick
Cimarron
62
25 point gap
Highest rated
City Lights
87
Also in contention
  • 84M

Methodology

Composite score blends IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Metacritic. The “actual best” of each year only counts if it clears two bars: multi-source critical coverage (RT or Metacritic, not just IMDb) and at least 100,000 IMDb votes. Canon older films (Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, Vertigo, etc.) clear those comfortably; obscure films with thin scores get filtered out so the Academy isn't judged against data we can't trust.

  • 81I'm Still Here
  • 82Top Gun: Maverick
  • 79Spider-Man: No Way Home
  • 81Soul
  • 81Andhadhun
  • 83Get Out
  • 83Interstellar
  • 82Gangs of Wasseypur
  • 83Incendies
  • 82The Hurt Locker
  • 82Catch Me If You Can
  • 82Y Tu Mamá También
  • 83Almost Famous
  • 83Being John Malkovich
  • 80Rushmore
  • 82Boogie Nights
  • 82Seven
  • 86The Lion King
  • 79Kiki's Delivery Service
  • 81Who Framed Roger Rabbit
  • 77Planes, Trains & Automobiles
  • 82Brazil
  • 75Monty Python's the Meaning of Life
  • 78The King of Comedy
  • 74The Evil Dead
  • 80The Shining
  • 81Monty Python's Life of Brian
  • 81Night of the Living Dead
  • 78From Russia with Love
  • 84
    The Wizard of Oz